7.11 rain demo risk chart

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Risk Chart
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A risk chart presents a cumulative performance view of the model.

The x-axis can be thought of as the days across the dataset, but
sorting (left to right) to days from the highest probability of rain
tomorrow on the left to the lowest probability of rain tomorrow on the
right.

The y-axis is then the performance of the model in predicting whether
it will rain tomorrow. It is the percentage of the actual days on which
it rains that are predicted by the model as raining tomorrow. Thus,
100% (at the top) covers all days on which it rains. For the top 20% of
the days with the highest probability of rain tomorrow (Caseload =
20%), some 54% of the actual days for which it rained are predicted by
the model.

The more area under the curve the better the model performance. A
perfect model would follow the grey line. The Precision line represents
the lift offered by the model, with the lift values on the right hand
axis.

Close the graphic window using Ctrl-W.



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